Hierarchy of Big Men from the 2018 NBA Draft: Part One

Analyzing all the big men taken in the 2018 draft using a blend of statistics, self-created models, and observations. Part one incorporates in-depth statistics to evaluate these players.

The 2018 rendition of the NBA Draft was heralded for its plethora of dominant big men. For the first time since 2011, five of the top seven draft picks were big men, but unlike 2011 where a 6’8 Derrick Williams was the cream of the big men crop, all of the top bigs drafted in 2018 were 6’10 or taller, and had wingspans greater than 7’1. This amount of size at the top of the class is a rarity, but the amount of size mixed with talent is what makes the big men of this class generational. Because of how talented all these bigs are it’s hard to differentiate which player will be the most successful at the next level. In order to do this, it’s helpful to use a bit of analytical data and models to assess just how good each of these big men are, and how good they will be. But before going into the data, let’s define what makes a good big man in today’s NBA.

What Makes a Big Man Successful in Today’s NBA?

Unlike 20 years ago where a successful big could simply be a big body who could score in the post, the great big men of today fall into two categories: versatile/perimeter skilled bigs, and lengthy rim protecting/ rim running bigs. Every big man selected to the all-star game this year (with the exception of Lamarcus Aldridge) fits into one of, or both of, these categories: Demarcus Cousins (versatile), Anthony Davis (both), Drummond (Rim Running), KAT (versatile), Horford (versatile), Green (versatile), Embiid (both). Therefore, the players who excel in at least one of these categories will have a much higher chance of succeeding at the next level.

Versatile Bigs:

In the realms of this analysis, in order to be considered a versatile big, a prospect must have at least two of the three: an assist rate of 11.82 or higher (one standard deviation below the mean), usage rate of above 22.1 (one half standard deviation below the mean), 3P% above 33.1 (one half standard deviation below the mean) and/or 3.23 three attempted per game (one third standard deviation below the mean). The means and standard deviations were calculated from the 2017-2018 averages of each versatile all star big. Abiding by these requirements, these are the big men from the 2018 draft who qualify as versatile bigs:

• Kevin Hervey: 3 of the 3 (3PA & 3P%, Assist Rate, Usage Rate)

• Wendell Carter: 3 of the 3 (3P%, Assist Rate, Usage Rate)

• Alize Johnson: 3 of the 3 (3PA, Assist Rate, Usage Rate)

• Mo Wagner: 2 of the 3 (3P% & 3PA, Usage Rate)

• Deandre Ayton: 2 of the 3 (3P%, Usage Rate)

• Marvin Bagley: 2 of the 3 (3P%, Usage Rate)

• Jaren Jackson: 2 of the 3 (3P%, Usage Rate)

Out of the 14 bigs drafted, 7 of them qualify as versatile bigs. However, 4 of them are on the borderline, (who also happen to be three of the top five bigs drafted), as they only met two of the four requirements. Only Kevin Hervey of Texas-Arlington met all three requirements while shooting above 33.1% and attempting more than 3.23 threes a game. However, Hervey’s extraordinary stats could be a product of playing in a weaker conference, making it harder to determine if Hervey’s game will translate well at the next level. Two other players met the three requirements (Alize Johnson and Wendell Carter), but only Carter did it in a power five conference. Therefore, Wendell Carter appears to be the player most likely to become an all star from playing as a versatile big. If the Bulls are able to utilize Carter as a Horford type player in their offense (a playmaker/pick and pop savant), it’s almost certain Carter will be an all star caliber player in this league for years to come.

Rim Running Bigs:

Similar to how I determined which prospects were versatile big, I used the 2017-2018 averages of each rim running all star big to determine which prospects are rim runners. To be a considered a rim running big, a prospect must have at least two of the three: a wingspan greater than 7’5 (the minimum from the data set), a block rate of greater than 4.6 (one half standard deviation below the mean), and a FG% above 50.1% (one half standard deviation below the mean). These are the big men from the 2018 draft who qualify as rim running bigs:

• Ray Spalding; 3 of3 (Block Rate, FG%, Wingspan)

• Mo Bamba: 3 of 3 (Wingspan, FG%, Block Rate)

• Robert Williams: 3 of 3 (FG%, Block Rate, Wingspan)

• Jaren Jackson: 2 of 3 (FG%, Block Rate)

• Deandre Ayton: 2 of 3 (FG%, Wingspan)

• Chimezie Metu: 2 of 3 (Block Rate, FG%)

• Wendell Carter: 2 of 3 (FG%, Block Rate)

Three of the rims running bigs meet all three of the requirements (Spalding, Bamba and Williams), and three players who were also versatile bigs qualify as rim running bigs (Ayton, Jackson, Carter). Overall, Bamba is the quintessential rim running big, possessing lottery talent to compliment his absurd 7’10 wingspan. If the Magic can obtain playmaking guards who can create offense for Bamba in pick and roll/pick and pop situations, Bamba will surely be a threat on both ends of the floor for years to come.

Interestingly enough, 11 of the big men in the draft qualified for at least one of the two categories, a true testament to how talented the big man class is. Of course, not all of these big men will succeed, so to better figure out which of the player’s games will and won’t translate to the next level, part two of this analysis will use regression models to predict the future success of these players.