Early Season Predictions: In a revamped Eastern Conference, the Bucks emergence may be the most impr

Fear the Deer:

Let me start this piece by laying out my thought process for why the Bucks had seemingly been underachievers the last few seasons. To me, there could only be two possible reasons: One, Giannis Antetokounmpo was not the elite player we all thought him to be, or two, their role players had been overhyped by the media. With these two possible reasons laid out in my mind, I logically assumed it had to be the latter; Giannis’s consistent play only further corroborated my belief that he is an elite number one option, therefore, the disappointing results of the Bucks must have been a product of the role player’s tenuous play. Well hindsight’s 20/20, because its evident now that this thought process of mine was fallacious. There are so many variables that dictate how successful a team is, and in the case of the Bucks, it was a variable so tangible and apparent it should have been on my radar; the Bucks just needed a coach who knew how to conduct an offense in today’s NBA. In other words, the Bucks just needed Coach Mike Budenholzer.

Let me continue this piece by highlighting a few parallels between this Bucks team and the 2015 Warriors. For both these teams, former NBA point guards turned coaches took young stars and untapped their potential (for the Bucks it was Jason Kidd with Giannis, for the Warriors, Mark Jackson with Steph Curry). However, after a few seasons of hinging onto the precipice of greatness with a few glimpses of it every now and then, both these teams brought in new coaches who utilized more innovative offenses that finally took these teams to the next level. It may be premature to say the Bucks have reached that next level like the Warriors did in 2015, but let’s conclude this piece by showing the numbers that indicate the Bucks are there.

Next Level Stats:

2018-2019 Bucks: 2017-2018 Bucks:

Pace: 103.8 (5th in the League) +6.8 Pace: 96.2 (20th in the League)

3PA: 40.5 (2nd in the League) +15.8 3PA: 24.7 (25th in the League)

3P%: 37.6% (5th in the league) +2.1% 3P%: 35.5% (22nd in the League)

APG: 27.3 (4th in the League) +4.1 APG: 23.2 (14th in the League)

ORTG: 116.3 (2nd in the League) +6.5 ORTG: 109.8 (9th in the League)

2014-2015 Warriors: 2013-2014 Warriors: Pace: 98.3 (1st in the League) +2.1 Pace: 96.2 (6th in the League)

3PA: 27 (4th in the League) +2.2 3PA: 24.8 (6th in the League)

3P%: 39.8% (1st in the League) +1.8% 3P%: 38% (4th in the League)

APG: 27.4 (1st in the League) +4.2 APG: 23.2 (7TH in the League)

ORTG: 111.6 (2nd in the League) +4.1 ORTG: 107.5 (12th in the League)

As hopefully I’ve made evident, both the Bucks and Warriors saw significant jumps in tempo, three point shooting, ball movement, and subsequently, overall offense. By playing this style of ball, the Warriors were able to maximize the transcendent skill set of Curry, and dominant the league ever since. By playing a similar style of ball, the Bucks are on track to do the same thing. While Giannis is in no way the three-point shooter Steph is, his ability to push the pace, draw mass attention from the defense, and find the open shooter is on par with Steph, and thus an offense that focuses on these attributes is favorable for both these players.

Even though its only been ten games, it’s clear the Bucks will remain near the top in each of these categories due to Coach Bud’s game plan, and thus Giannis and the Bucks will continue to excel just like the Warriors did in 2015. Will the Bucks win the Finals this year: No, because the Warriors are still a thing. But could the Bucks head for a trajectory similar to the Warriors (before they acquired KD and Boogie)? Without a doubt.