Free Agent Profile: Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper, 26, is coming off a year labeled as a disappointment by many. The 5-time All-star batted only .249, striking out a career high 169 times while having a career low WAR for a full season of 1.3. That all being said, the man still put up some monstrous numbers in other categories. He walked 130 times during the year, having a .393 OBP for the season. That is 140 points higher than his batting average, elite by any regard. He hit 34 home runs, good for his second most in a season. He had 34 doubles, again good for second most in his career. The Nationals failed to make the playoffs and have not made it out of the first round of the playoffs during the illustrious tenure of their right fielder. The Nationals were widely seen as a disappointment, coming in with a talented roster, loaded pitching rotation, and a dominant lineup. The explosion of Juan Soto, dominant pitching of ace Max Scherzer, and the early acquisition of Kelvin Herrera should have set the Nats up for success. The team flopped, finishing with only 82 wins, 8 out of the division. They sold veterans like Daniel Murphy, Gio Gonzales, and Brandon Kintzler. Bryce was rumored to be available as well. The Nationals were a major disappointment. So where does that leave Bryce?

Harper comes into free agency as the premier batsman available. He is known as a fierce competitor, considered brash by some. However, his passion for the game as never been questioned. He has a plus arm as well as experience in all outfield positions, having over a seasons worth of games played in each position. Though not a great defender, he is only slightly below average. Harper saw a career high 4.14 pitches per plate appearance, beating out his MVP season high of 4.1. Yes, he was susceptible to the strikeout this year. Watching him play, his bat looked a beat slow, especially on high fastballs. This could be attributed to new hitting coach Kevin Long. Long is a firm believer in launch angle and though it worked with some hitters (Daniel Murphy in 2015), it does lead to increased strikeout numbers because strikeouts are valued higher than grounding out in attempt to elevate the ball. Perhaps Long’s approach with Harper slowed him down this year. Either way, it would be silly to think that the 26-year old from Las Vegas is regressing or that he has already reached his peak. His eye at the plate is second to none and his ability to strike fear into the other team’s pitching staff is unheralded. Harper has at least 6-8 years of premier baseball left and anyone who thinks otherwise does not know baseball.

Next comes value. Bryce Harper enters free agency younger than most do when they enter free agency and that serves to benefit him in terms of monetary value of his contract. When Jason Heyward signed his long-term Contract with the Cubs in 2016, he was also entering his age 27 season. His contract was good for 8 years and $184 million, so that is the very start of the Harper Contract. The expected year range for a long term deal for Harper is anywhere from 8-10 years. Heyward’s average value is $23 mil/year. Harper will command far more than that. His AAV will START at $30 million, working up to as high as $40 million. He is a generational talent that is a free agent BEFORE entering his prime. The contract that is on the table starts at roughly $250 million and could peak just below $400 million. This deal will set all kinds of records. The deal will inevitably come with at least 3 opt outs, with the earliest coming after year 2. This will allow Harper to re-enter free agency after his age 28 season with the chance to earn even more money if he returns to his 2015 self. Other opt outs will most likely come after year 4 and after year 6, allowing Bryce to sign one more long contract for his career. A full no trade clause for his first 2 years will be the starting point, if not until his second opt out. Overall breakdown of the contract: 8-10 years, $250-$350 million, 3+ opt outs, full no trade clause for at least 2 years.

Finally, the players in the Bryce Harper derby include the following: Phillies, Cubs, Giants, Yankees, Dodgers, and the Nationals. All of these teams have the financial flexibility to take on a contract the size of Harper, so long as they are willing to pay the luxury tax. Teams such as the Cubs and Dodgers intentionally moved under the cap prior to last season in order to save money in preparation to pay it moving forward. The Giants are in need of a marquee star, the Yankees are the Yankees, the Phillies are the odds-on favorite, and the Nationals are the incumbent. How will I narrow down the list to an eventual winner of the Harper sweepstakes? Check back with Analytic Sports in the future for mo

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