Hierarchy of Big Men from the 2018 NBA Draft: Part Three

In the first two parts of this series we examined the 2018 big men class by using a blend of statistics and models; part three will use all these statistical findings to create a final hierarchal ranking of these big men:

1. Deandre Ayton: Ayton thrived in both sections of this analysis: being one of three bigs to qualify as both a versatile big and a rim running big, while finishing with the highest score in the first model, and the fourth highest in the second. But Ayton’s ability to dominate goes well beyond what was discussed in the first two sections. The fact that Ayton projects well in the model is more of a confirmation than a revelation; Ayton was a force to be reckoned with the moment he stepped foot in Tucson. Ayton has unprecedented size for a 19 year old prospect (7’1, 260 pounds with a 7’6 wingspan), which when blended with an ability to shoot the three, finish at the rim, and create his own shot makes him the prospect with the highest ceiling. Some bigs in this class may have more transferrable abilities (i.e. protecting the rim), but if Ayton’s game does translate the way the models and statistics project it to, Ayton will be a perennial all star in this league.

2. Jaren Jackson: Jaren Jackson benefits the most from the models in part two, finishing with the second highest score in model one, and the highest score in model two. Simply put, Jackson has the perfect game for a big man in today’s NBA. He’s a versatile big who excels at shooting the three (40% in college), with great length and a jaw-dropping ability to block shots (14.3 block rate in college). The only reason Ayton has a higher ceiling than Jackson is Jackson’s subpar ability to create his own shot; and while he may never be a great shot creator and pure scorer like Ayton, Jackson is the closest to a guarantee in this draft to become an impactful starter at the 4/5 due to his transferable ability to block shots and hit the three.

3. Wendell Carter: Carter rounds out the top three of this ranking fittingly, as Ayton, Jackson, and Carter were the only three bigs to qualifiy as both rim running and versatile bigs in part one, and each of these players finished in the top five of both models. Carter’s ability to shoot the three, share the ball, and protect the rim more than makes up for his lack of athleticism and height (6’10). He may never be a star, but Carter is more likely to be Al Horford than he is to be Jahlil Okafor.

4. Mo Bamba: Bamba is the obvious choice at the four spot. His length is historic (not an exaggeration), and consequently has all the attributes to be an effective rim protecting/rim running big at the next level (length, shot blocking ability, finishing ability, ability to thrive in P&R situations). Bamba fared well in both models (fifth in the first model, second in the second model), corroborating the idea that Bamba’s aforementioned attributes will allow him to excel.

5. Marvin Bagley: The statistics in part one and the models in part two all suggest the same thing: Bagley should not have been the second big taken in the draft. Bagley qualified as a versatile big in part one due to his three point shooting and usage rate, however, Bagley’s three point shooting in college was in short supply (averaged 1.8 threes a game; to compare, Jaren Jackson played 12.1 less minutes a game and still managed to average 2.7 threes a game). At the same time, his free throw shooting percentage was subpar in college (62.7%), an indicator than Bagley’s shooting abilities may not flourish at the next level. Because of this, it’s hard to imagine Bagley thriving as a versatile big, and consequently becoming an all star. The models only reinforce this notion, as he finishes fifth and sixth respectively in the first and second model. Due to his ability to rebound (specifically offensive rebound), and his ability to score in the paint at a high level, Bagley will not be a bust and fall out of the league : he will be a valuable starting four, but his chances of being a perennial all star are slim.

6. Robert Williams and 7. Chimezie Metu: The next two bigs will have successful careers in the league for the same reason: blocks. Both Williams and Metu project well at the next level as rim running / rim protecting bigs, with Williams even finishing top three in the second model (the model that was more favorable to rim protecting bigs). Metu finished seventh in that model, right after the top five bigs in the draft and Williams. From my models produced, block rate in college had the highest correlation with PER, and therefore appears to be the most transferrable ability from college to the NBA. Thus, if a player is an elite shot blocker in college, they have a good chance of being an impactful player at the next level. For that reason, if a rim running big and a versatile big are equally good at their respective qualities, I will rank the rim running big higher as their abilities have a greater chance of translating to the NBA; and that’s exactly what we see here with Williams and Metu.

8. Kevin Hervey and 9. Mo Wagner: Hervey and Wagner both qualified as versatile bigs in part one, as both displayed efficient and high volume three-point shooting, coupled with high usage rates. The only thing that separated Hervey from Wagner was his ability as a playmaker, as his assist rate also qualified him as a versatile big. Hervey also fared extremely well in the first model, finishing sixth right after the top five bigs. The only thing that discredits Hervey is the fact that he played in a small conference, but as discussed in part two, his high score in the first model alleviates this concern. Hervey projects to be a high quality role player, who can both stretch the floor and be a play maker in the offense. Looking at Wagner: he was the best player on one of the best teams in the country, and overall has a higher ceiling than Hervey. However, Wagner did not fare great in the models (fourth to last in the first model, eighth in the second), mostly due to his defensive woes (1.43 defensive win shares per year), and a short wingspan for his height (7’0 in height with a 7’0 wingspan). Due to this, Hervey is a safer bet to be a solid role player in the NBA.

10. Omari Spellman: Spellman was one of only three players to not qualify as a versatile big or a rim running big in part one, and when coupled with a mediocre output from the models (finished eight and ninth in the two models respectively), it’s hard to see Spellman be anything more than a stretch four who can play a role off the bench. Spellman is limited offensively (as his three point ability is his only real strength), and while his does have a relatively long wingspan (7’2 wingspan at 6’9), he was not a phenomenal shot blocker in college (5.5 block rate). To keep it simple, both Spellman’s ceiling, and his overall ability to impact an NBA game, is extremely limited.

Unlikely to have any role in the league:

11. Ray Splading

12. Alize Johnson

13. Thomas Welsh